Model prediction of water quality patterns
in the Mozhaiskoe water reservoir under the heat wave conditions

Summary

The issues of water quality in water reservoirs used for public water supply are of primary concern. Intensive phytoplankton development in them is a most common problem in water supply. Therefore the selection of tools that provide for predicting to a high degree of accuracy the processes of water quality formation in water reservoirs under various hydro meteorological summer conditions is a task of primary importance. The results of the model prediction of the basic water quality patterns under the heat wave conditions and of the diagnostic calculation of the environmental conditions of the Mozhaiskoe water reservoir in 2014 carried out according to GMV-MGU model and verified by the field studies data are presented. The verification showed good reproduction of the water quality patterns of the Mozhaiskoe water reservoir by the model. The comparison of the model prediction results, diagnostic calculation and field studies data showed that the model prediction of the water reservoir conditions for the minimum winter storage decrease, low flow spring tide and excessive summer heat is coherent with the actual 2014 pattern when similar hydro meteorological conditions were observed. GMV-MGU model can be used for predictions and diagnostic calculations of water quality patterns in the water reservoirs used for public water supply in the process of planning the measures on operating and long-term control of hydroengineering facilities and water intakes operation.

Key words

simulation , water quality , reservoir , phytoplankton , heat wave , anoxia